Miami (3-4) kept its playoff hopes alive with a bizarre 30-25 win over the Jets on Sunday; if the Dolphins hope to catch the Patriots in the AFC East, they need to come up with a win this weekend. Speaking of the Pats, New England (5-2) took last week off after beating up on Tampa Bay in London, England.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL odds: Patriots -10.5

The Dolphins rebounded from a humiliating collapse against New Orleans a few weeks ago to knock off the Jets. They got a big boost from receiver Ted Ginn, who was benched after playing poorly against the Saints. Ginn reminded everyone why he was taken in the first round by Miami a few years ago: his blinding speed. Ginn returned two kicks for touchdowns against New York.

Good thing, too, because Miami’s offense was listless against the Jets, generating just 104 yards of offense. Chad Henne struggled for the second straight week, throwing for just 112 yards. The defense wasn’t much better than the offense after allowing 378 yards of offense. Miami is solid against the run but it’s prone to big pass plays; Miami is third-worst in the NFL in both pass completions of over 20 and 40 yards allowed.

That’s trouble against Tom Brady and the Patriots, who have been on fire the past two weeks. Brady has fired nine touchdown passes and 688 yards in his last two games, while the offense scored 94 points in that span. It came against two of the weaker pass defenses in the NFL—Tennessee and Tampa Bay—a category Miami falls in to.

The Patriots have surrendered just seven points in their past two games. The Dolphins have a much better offense than Tampa or Tennessee, though, so New England will have something to prove on Sunday. Miami’s biggest offensive strength is the running game, but the Pats have been pretty solid defensively on that front, allowing 109 rushing yards per game.

At 10.5 points, this is a big spread for the Patriots to cover. Of course, considering they’ve outscored their last two opponents 94-7, it’s not such a stretch. While Miami isn’t as bad as the Buccs or Titans, its pass defense is. Look for Brady to light the skies and blow out the Dolphins on Sunday.